Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Monday 30 March 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
Spain 6803 (+821) 80110 (+6875) 14709 (+2424) 58598 (+3630)
Italy 10779 (+756) 97689 (+5217) 13030 (+646) 73880 (+3815)
France 2606 (+292) 40174 (+2599) 7202 (+1502) 30366 (+805)
United States 2471 (+260) 141781 (+18470) 4435 (+1204) 134875 (+17006)
United Kingdom 1228 (+209) 19522 (+2433) 135 (+0) 18159 (+2224)
Netherlands 771 (+132) 10866 (+1104) 250 (+247) 9845 (+725)
Iran 2640 (+123) 38309 (+2901) 12391 (+712) 23278 (+2066)
Germany 533 (+100) 62095 (+4400) 9211 (+730) 52351 (+3570)
Belgium 431 (+78) 10836 (+1702) 1359 (+296) 9046 (+1328)
Switzerland 300 (+36) 14829 (+753) 1595 (+65) 12934 (+652)
Turkey 131 (+23) 9217 (+1815) 105 (+35) 8981 (+1757)
Brazil 136 (+22) 4256 (+352) 6 (+0) 4114 (+330)
Portugal 119 (+19) 5962 (+792) 43 (+0) 5800 (+773)
Austria 86 (+18) 8788 (+517) 479 (+254) 8223 (+245)
Indonesia 114 (+12) 1285 (+130) 64 (+5) 1107 (+113)
Dominican Republic 39 (+11) 859 (+140) 3 (+0) 817 (+129)
Panama 24 (+10) 989 (+203) 4 (+2) 961 (+191)
Ireland 46 (+10) 2615 (+200) 5 (+0) 2564 (+190)
Ecuador 58 (+10) 1924 (+101) 3 (+0) 1863 (+91)
Malaysia 35 (+8) 2470 (+150) 388 (+68) 2047 (+74)
South Korea 152 (+8) 9583 (+105) 5033 (+222) 4398 (-125)
Greece 39 (+7) 1156 (+95) 52 (+0) 1065 (+88)
Denmark 72 (+7) 2395 (+194) 1 (+0) 2322 (+187)
Romania 43 (+6) 1815 (+363) 206 (+67) 1566 (+290)
Sweden 110 (+5) 3700 (+253) 16 (+0) 3574 (+248)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 30642 (+3098) 639838 (+58695) 75556 (+9059)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 37490 ( +5394) 768527 ( +101260) 90613 ( +13378)
Tue 31 March 2020 43791 ( +6301) 885155 ( +116627) 106309 ( +15696)
Wed 01 April 2020 51151 ( +7360) 1019480 ( +134326) 124723 ( +18415)
Thu 02 April 2020 59748 ( +8597) 1174191 ( +154710) 146328 ( +21604)
Fri 03 April 2020 69791 ( +10042) 1352379 ( +178188) 171674 ( +25347)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 3300 (+5) 81439 (+45) 75448 (+477)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 3236 ( +1) 80922 ( +0) 74025 ( +141)
Tue 31 March 2020 3237 ( +1) 80922 ( +0) 74148 ( +123)
Wed 01 April 2020 3237 ( +0) 80923 ( +0) 74254 ( +106)
Thu 02 April 2020 3237 ( +0) 80923 ( +0) 74346 ( +92)
Fri 03 April 2020 3238 ( +0) 80923 ( +0) 74426 ( +80)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

If Spain follows Italy's behaviour we should start seeing a flattening of the number of Deaths and cases in the following days, although it is still not clear yet. When that happens the predicted deaths should be reduced with respect to this prediction.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 6803 (+821) 80110 (+6875) 14709 (+2424)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 7514 ( +731) 88217 ( +7479) 19398 ( +4314)
Tue 31 March 2020 8163 ( +649) 95203 ( +6986) 24945 ( +5547)
Wed 01 April 2020 8720 ( +557) 101574 ( +6371) 32079 ( +7134)
Thu 02 April 2020 9182 ( +463) 107259 ( +5685) 41254 ( +9174)
Fri 03 April 2020 9557 ( +375) 112234 ( +4976) 53051 ( +11798)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 10779 (+756) 97689 (+5217) 13030 (+646)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 11279 ( +642) 100616 ( +4160) 16159 ( +1884)
Tue 31 March 2020 11861 ( +582) 104346 ( +3731) 18292 ( +2133)
Wed 01 April 2020 12382 ( +520) 107655 ( +3309) 20706 ( +2414)
Thu 02 April 2020 12840 ( +459) 110562 ( +2906) 23439 ( +2733)
Fri 03 April 2020 13239 ( +399) 113093 ( +2531) 26532 ( +3093)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 2471 (+260) 141781 (+18470) 4435 (+1204)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 3372 ( +760) 186395 ( +36332) 6929 ( +2282)
Tue 31 March 2020 4354 ( +982) 231524 ( +45129) 10331 ( +3403)
Wed 01 April 2020 5621 ( +1268) 287579 ( +56055) 15405 ( +5074)
Thu 02 April 2020 7258 ( +1637) 357206 ( +69627) 22970 ( +7565)
Fri 03 April 2020 9372 ( +2114) 443691 ( +86485) 34250 ( +11280)

France

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 2606 (+292) 40174 (+2599) 7202 (+1502)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 2903 ( +286) 44288 ( +3761) 9844 ( +1996)
Tue 31 March 2020 3156 ( +253) 47941 ( +3652) 12348 ( +2504)
Wed 01 April 2020 3371 ( +216) 51422 ( +3481) 15488 ( +3141)
Thu 02 April 2020 3549 ( +178) 54682 ( +3260) 19428 ( +3940)
Fri 03 April 2020 3692 ( +143) 57684 ( +3002) 24370 ( +4942)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 2640 (+123) 38309 (+2901) 12391 (+712)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 2662 ( +82) 37756 ( +1762) 14838 ( +1285)
Tue 31 March 2020 2734 ( +72) 39460 ( +1703) 16245 ( +1407)
Wed 01 April 2020 2795 ( +62) 41094 ( +1635) 17786 ( +1541)
Thu 02 April 2020 2848 ( +53) 42653 ( +1558) 19473 ( +1687)
Fri 03 April 2020 2893 ( +45) 44128 ( +1475) 21319 ( +1847)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 533 (+100) 62095 (+4400) 9211 (+730)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 654 ( +119) 67592 ( +5457) 13852 ( +3458)
Tue 31 March 2020 786 ( +132) 72701 ( +5110) 18460 ( +4608)
Wed 01 April 2020 926 ( +141) 77382 ( +4681) 24602 ( +6141)
Thu 02 April 2020 1071 ( +145) 81586 ( +4204) 32786 ( +8185)
Fri 03 April 2020 1214 ( +143) 85294 ( +3708) 43694 ( +10908)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 1228 (+209) 19522 (+2433) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 1553 ( +318) 24361 ( +4136) 186 ( +19)
Tue 31 March 2020 1953 ( +400) 29343 ( +4982) 207 ( +21)
Wed 01 April 2020 2456 ( +503) 35344 ( +6001) 229 ( +23)
Thu 02 April 2020 3088 ( +633) 42571 ( +7228) 255 ( +25)
Fri 03 April 2020 3884 ( +796) 51277 ( +8706) 283 ( +28)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 110 (+5) 3700 (+253) 16 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 124 ( +8) 3815 ( +227) 16 ( +0)
Tue 31 March 2020 130 ( +6) 4033 ( +218) 16 ( +0)
Wed 01 April 2020 133 ( +4) 4241 ( +208) 16 ( +0)
Thu 02 April 2020 136 ( +3) 4437 ( +196) 16 ( +0)
Fri 03 April 2020 138 ( +2) 4619 ( +182) 16 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 771 (+132) 10866 (+1104) 250 (+247)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 995 ( +195) 13303 ( +1887) 960 ( +710)
Tue 31 March 2020 1238 ( +243) 15502 ( +2199) 985 ( +26)
Wed 01 April 2020 1540 ( +302) 18065 ( +2563) 985 ( +0)
Thu 02 April 2020 1917 ( +376) 21051 ( +2986) 985 ( +0)
Fri 03 April 2020 2385 ( +468) 24531 ( +3480) 985 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 22 (+4) 1862 (+224) 7 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 24 ( +3) 2039 ( +201) nan ( +nan)
Tue 31 March 2020 27 ( +3) 2232 ( +193) nan ( +nan)
Wed 01 April 2020 30 ( +3) 2412 ( +181) nan ( +nan)
Thu 02 April 2020 33 ( +3) 2577 ( +165) nan ( +nan)
Fri 03 April 2020 36 ( +3) 2724 ( +147) nan ( +nan)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 300 (+36) 14829 (+753) 1595 (+65)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 335 ( +36) 15407 ( +658) 2752 ( +888)
Tue 31 March 2020 369 ( +34) 15953 ( +545) 4063 ( +1311)
Wed 01 April 2020 400 ( +31) 16397 ( +444) 5999 ( +1936)
Thu 02 April 2020 427 ( +27) 16754 ( +357) 8857 ( +2858)
Fri 03 April 2020 451 ( +24) 17039 ( +284) 13078 ( +4221)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 29 March 2020 431 (+78) 10836 (+1702) 1359 (+296)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 30 March 2020 579 ( +130) 12879 ( +2118) 1771 ( +387)
Tue 31 March 2020 746 ( +167) 15414 ( +2535) 2266 ( +495)
Wed 01 April 2020 961 ( +215) 18448 ( +3034) 2898 ( +633)
Thu 02 April 2020 1238 ( +277) 22079 ( +3631) 3708 ( +810)
Fri 03 April 2020 1596 ( +358) 26425 ( +4346) 4744 ( +1036)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.